政「息」人亡

發佈時間: 2017/04/28

政「息」人亡

每年初,筆者都為當年的可能大件事,給個估計,2016年的是︰息貶革滯。即要留心,息口、貶值、改革、滯脹,是也不是大家評。今年估計是︰政「息」人亡。即要留心︰政治、息口、人仔、亡破。前三項,待發展,最後一項的亡破,是指有公司要破產,有國家要亡。

到今年第三、四季,大家應見到不少美國的零售連鎖店要結業至破產,但國家要亡,又何所指?是指北韓。

中朝關係倒退 制裁在即

維基解密文件顯示,2013年時任國務卿的希拉里在高盛內部,曾談及過北韓問題,重點是︰

⑴美國不欲見南北韓統一,因為一統之後,南韓會為主,美國不欲見一個過強大的南韓。

⑵當時一個被約制的北韓,合美國利益,這亦是美國與前兩任北韓領導人的共識。

⑶新領導人,北韓的金正恩上場後,有不少自把自為,中國也接受不了。

⑷曾透過個北韓高階軍官訪問團,告知金正恩︰It is not acceptable(希拉里所言)。

傳已被判刑的前中央政法委書記周永康以前跟北韓軍隊有密切接觸,周永康下台,對北韓領導層,應是個警號,傳今年2月28日,中國已不再接收北韓的煤,亦少了中國代表團去參加北韓的一些慶典,最近有傳北韓亦拒見中國外長王毅的工作團隊,種種迹象似說明中朝關係在倒退。

月前,金正恩的阿哥在馬來西亞被殺,鬧出國際風波,中國一直「照顧」住金正恩的阿哥,他經常在澳門出入。要「照顧」好他,是有朝一日可以用上,春秋戰國歷史此中例子多的是,呂不韋的奇貨可居便是。金正恩阿哥被殺,中國「投資」損了一項,一旦北韓出事,便無人「出面」替代。

於是,一個不受美、中制約的北韓會成中美以至俄羅斯的問題。國家主席習近平於4月6日與美國總統特朗普在北韓問題上談了些甚麼?

假如要解決北韓,就一定要快、狠、準,好似處理拉登一樣,又不然就要搞軍隊嘩變,但千搞萬搞,一定不要讓北韓死士撳掣,射出導彈,去炸到南韓的核電站,又或要喝止到可能已散布於歐美境內的北韓特工或同情北韓的恐怖分子,對美國本土核電站,發動攻擊。

解決北韓 一定要快狠準

這個估計是不是靠嚇?看下列︰

•4月23-26日,美國在模擬曼哈頓有核爆恐襲Operation Gotham Shield。

•4月26日,紐約有恐襲災難疏散演習,有關通告詳情見如下:

Full-scale exrcise focused on preparing for complex terror attacks to include National Capital Region first responders, emergency managers.

Law enforcement officials and other first responders will participate in a full-scale exercise on April 26 designed to prepare for the possibility of a complex coordinated terror attack in the National Capital Region.

Emergency managers who work together at the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments(COG)planned the exercise to help protect residents by preparing for an attack involving multiple target locations and teams of perpetrators.

The regional exercise will be staged at six sites in the District of Columbia, suburban Maryland and Northern Virginia, and will involve hundreds of police, fire, and emergency medical service personnel and volunteer actors. The locations include neighborhoods in the northeast and southeast quadrants of the District of Columbia, Prince George's County, and Arlington and Fairfax Counties. Residents in those neighborhoods will be notified ahead of time to expect the exercise.

“Law enforcement officials practice and exercise their skills on their own regularly because that's the best way to ensure we are always ready to respond quickly and professionally,”said Scott Boggs, Managing Director of Homeland Security and Public Safety at COG.“On April 26, we'll go one step further and stage a very realistic emergency event involving multiple sites and actors posing as the casualties. However, there is no reason for residents to be alarmed because the exercise will occur in a controlled environment.”

MEDIA AVAILABILITY PRIOR TO EXERCISE ONLY (see details below)

WHEN︰Wednesday April 26, 7︰30-8︰30 A.M.

WHERE︰Maryland National Capital Park Police Headquarters, 8100 Corporate Drive, Hyattsville, MD 20785

Contact︰ Jeanne Saddler

Phone︰ (202) 962-3250

Email︰ jsaddler@mwcog.org

•4月26日NBC有報道,一旦有核襲,人民怎自處。

4月26日美軍576演練部隊有如下演習︰

"Team V is once again ready to work with Air Force Global Strike Command to successfully launch another Minuteman III missile.

These Minuteman launches are essential to verify the status of our national nuclear force and to demonstrate our national nuclear capabilities.

We are proud of our long history in partnering with the men and women of the 576th Flight Test Squadron to execute these missions for the nation."

該演習是模擬試射Minuteman III洲際導彈,射程可達北韓,今次是無帶核彈頭以至任何彈頭。

美國如斯公開,目的應在喝令北韓︰咪郁。另卡爾文森號航母戰鬥艦群會於今周六到韓國海面。

如果北韓被郁,只要沒有引來區域核電廠被炸,美國或環球大國沒有受恐怖分子攻擊,則世界將會很太平,大家快買貨,但如果有核爆、恐襲,唉!

北韓如被郁,之後還有沒有北韓呢!應有,應不會併入南韓,估計會由聯合國託管,又或由︰中、美、俄、歐四大勢力共管,一如東西柏林之分。

北韓經濟將破 民眾受苦

金正恩亦不是傻的,所以在4月15日、4月25日,都沒有核試或導彈試射,不挑釁,免給人藉口,但他亦怕拉登式的斬首行動,故4月25日似未見出現於北韓建軍節。

下周一,美國會在聯合國提進一步對北韓的制裁,估計中國不反對,如俄羅斯也不反對,大家都知會乜事,北韓經濟將破將亡,唉!又是人民捱苦了。

撰文: 石鏡泉 經濟日報副社長兼研究部主管、電台財經節目主持人
欄名: 政•經•頑石不低頭