美政府關門

發佈時間: 2017/04/26

有分析認為,美國政府到今周六,就會國庫空虛,政府無錢用,要關門(Shutdown),為解此困,所以特朗普急於拉出財長來講,今周三有稅改方案,如被通過,即是美國政府又可發債券,暫不用關門,可以嗎?

Oxford Economics DE經濟學家稱,特朗普政府在政府撥款法案上「打亂了本可能平穩的一個過程」︰如果陷入僵局,實際GDP可能每周下調0.1個百分點;2013年政府關門兩周導致消費者信心指數和NFIB小企業樂觀指數下滑2點。

在2013年美國政府也曾關門,影響是︰

⑴美元在之前三周跌了3%(圖一);

⑵五年期國債減了57點子(圖一);

⑶由於政府關門,所以接下來的一些經濟數據未能接上;

⑷美政府請了4千萬人,政府關門等於這批人全失業。

觀望特朗普稅改 美政府再陷停擺

4月25日《滙通網》有以下報道︰

美國財長姆欽告訴在白宮的記者,總統的稅改計劃料定於周三公布,「將在經濟增長帶動下為自己買單」;姆欽表示,特朗普總統對於「我們」能達到「3%或以上的可持續增長非常堅定」;姆欽表示特朗普正辛苦工作避免政府關門,周五將是通過撥款法案避免政府陷入部分關門境地的最後期限。

所謂為自己買單,就是因為美國經濟增長可以達3%,故稅收可以支付特朗普的一切減稅、建牆、擴軍大計。但特朗普能真使美國經濟增長3%嗎?似乎華爾街選擇了相信,故周一晚美股大升,到周三(即港周四),特朗普就要拿出稅改計劃來與市場印證,市場會信嗎?國會會信嗎?信的話,股市不會跌,不信的話市跌。

國會信的話,本周末,美國政府不用關門,國會不信的話,本周末美國政府會關門。在市場信與國會信之間,特朗普應選擇要國會信,要國會信,不是要經濟、稅改計劃有幾好,而是有甚麼枱底政治交易。

第一白銀網有這報道︰在面對美國政府停擺這一危機的時候,特朗普雖表面上仍「大放厥詞」表示,就算政府「關門」也一定要「修牆」。但實際上,特朗普自己也擔心一旦政府關門,將導致其稅改的推遲以及美國經濟的損失。因此,根據今日(24日)最新消息顯示,特朗普同意繼續給奧巴馬醫改撥款來換取「修牆」的費用。一旦這筆交易達成,那麼特朗普醫改法案的推行將再次受阻。受此影響,本周的稅改法案也將產生一定的變化,黃金T+D再獲避險支撑。

美國人感覺無奈 有機會連累各國

美國政府關門,美國人又有甚麼看法?

在網上找了些來供大家參考。

SILVERGEDDON︰Nothing really matters any more.

JRobby︰Not at all. If it slows GOVT Spending down a bit, it's a good thing.

SILVERGEDDON︰Turning government into glass from space - it is the only way to be sure.

Looney︰The 100-days mark is approaching and it’s time to deliver at least one NEGOTIATED DEAL. I am not talking about Executive Orders or flimsy“continuing resolutions”. I am talking about a single DEAL, any deal, negotiated either with the Freedom Caucus or Democrats, Xi or Putin. The size or importance of the deal doesn’t matter-SHOW ME ONE FUCKING DEAL!

Mtnrunnr︰As a fed contractor I hope they do and they keep it that way. Then in 1 year when the numbers come out and somehow we're still running a defecit and air quality is catastrophicly bad and bombs are still raining down in Syria, people moght look around and realize that the trillions in waste are lining congress' pockets and beinbf spent entirely in the military industrial complex and that EPA and USGS are actually national treasures.(Get rid of the bosses at the EPA, and USGS, they don't do shit and drive luxury cars)

Raffie︰Our debt is%105 of GPD so does not matter if they open or closed. We not getting out of this debt and everyone knows it.

HRClinton︰No it matters. Especially when those of you who actually have jobs and pay taxes, don't get your IRS Tax Refund. Now raise your hand if you're in that group and still want the Government to shut down and hold on to your money. Or will you go "full J.G. Wentworth" and shout "IT'S MY MONEY, AND I WANT IT NOW!"

HockeyFool︰I don't ever get a refund. I always owe them some. The goal is not to hand your money to the government all year and then ask for it back on next April 15th. The goal is to keep your money.

從以上看來是︰美國人也很無奈。

這是個事事要福利的必然後果,只可惜,你美國自己死就好啦,唔好害埋我哋吖嘛!不過,又一定害到,唉!

撰文: 石鏡泉 經濟日報副社長兼研究部主管、電台財經節目主持人
欄名: 政•經•頑石不低頭