鮑威爾的理念

2月3日，現美儲局主席耶倫便離任，由鮑威爾接掌。這個接掌，不是他單槍上任，而是尚有5位新人伴其上場。這是前所未有，可以認真體現一朝天子一朝臣。

有謂鮑威爾是由特朗普委任，故他是特朗普人。特朗普要刺激經濟，要弱美元，故必定不想美儲局加息。

亦有謂美儲局是獨立於白宮政府，故美儲局會按經濟數據，即失業率和通脹率來決定加多少息。

鮑威爾會怎做？

有認為，自2016年以來，鮑威爾在美儲局的投票取向，都是依着耶倫的意向，故普遍認為鮑威爾是鴿派，不傾向做加息鷹，果如是？

有謂三歲定八十，所以我們不宜找今年65歲的鮑威爾觀點來看，而應看鮑威爾前半生經歷和2012年（當年美儲局有政策轉向上的內部大辯論）的說法。

鮑威爾是金融界實戰派

鮑威爾是法學出身，未唸過經濟學，但就當上過私人投資機構的合夥人和任過老布殊時期的財政部職位，其前半生可算是金融界的實戰派，做多過講，對甚麼是市場風險不會不知，不然也不會累積到近億的財富，將是迄今為止，最有錢的美儲局主席。前周五，美儲局公布了2012年貨幣政策會議的紀錄，鮑威爾說了些甚麼？為免誤判，原文錄下，大家看看：

Powell: "I have concerns about more purchases. As others have pointed out, the dealer community is now assuming close to a $4 trillion balance sheet and purchases through the first quarter of 2014. I admit that is a much stronger reaction than I anticipated, and I am uncomfortable with it for a couple of reasons.

First, the question, why stop at $4 trillion? The market in most cases will cheer us for doing more. It will never be enough for the market. Our models will always tell us that we are helping the economy, and I will probably always feel that those benefits are overestimated. And we will be able to tell ourselves that market function is not impaired and that inflation expectations are under control. What is to stop us, other than much faster economic growth, which it is probably not in our power to produce?"

鮑威爾認為QE過多了，所以他不安心，「uncomfortable with it」，QE對經濟的刺激是被高估，「benefits are overestimated」。

當QE並不帶來足夠的經濟增長，市場的樂觀情緒會怎樣？這是我問，鮑威爾無明確表態。

Powell: "When it is time for us to sell, or even to stop buying, the response could be quite strong; there is every reason to expect a strong response. So there are a couple of ways to look at it. It is about $1.2 trillion in sales; you take 60 months, you get about $20 billion a month. That is a very doable thing, it sounds like, in a market where the norm by the middle of next year is $80 billion a month. Another way to look at it, though, is that it's not so much the sale, the duration; it's also unloading our short volatility position."

當美儲局要減持時，市場未必看是每月減200億債，連續減持60個月，而是看減1.2萬億，是可以「expect a strong response」，一句很值得留意的是「it's also unloading our short volatility position」，為何美儲局減債，會減了「short volatility position」？市場一直奇怪為何股升債升，但VIX不升？市場一直估是「有隻手」在撳住。VIX不升，理論上代表風險不升，但股價創新高，而VIX不升？當「手」不再撳了，VIX會升嗎？一升，即是投資者要打埋風險這個成本入去自己條數。

Powell: "My third concern-and others have touched on it as well-is the problems of exiting from a near $4 trillion balance sheet. We've got a set of principles from June 2011 and have done some work since then, but it just seems to me that we seem to be way too confident that exit can be managed smoothly. Markets can be much more dynamic than we appear to think.

When you turn and say to the market, "I've got $1.2 trillion of these things," it's not just $20 billion a month-it's the sight of the whole thing coming. And I think there is a pretty good chance that you could have quite a dynamic response in the market."

鮑威爾坦承，一旦退出，市場未必平靜應對，尤其是市場真正出現入肉的下跌時，後果難料。

Powell: "I think we are actually at a point of encouraging risk-taking, and that should give us pause. Investors really do understand now that we will be there to prevent serious losses. It is not that it is easy for them to make money but that they have every incentive to take more risk, and they are doing so. Meanwhile, we look like we are blowing a fixed-income duration bubble right across the credit spectrum that will result in big losses when rates come up down the road. You can almost say that that is our strategy."

鮑威爾說得明白不過，今時投資者信我們會罩住個市，無虞大跌，此舉使投資者敢於冒風險。最重要的是，鮑威爾講了個「B」字，bubble，泡沫，當利率上升，此泡沫必破，這是肯定講：「This is our strategy」，鮑威爾是要指出，無論這是否美儲局所願見，一旦出現，將會被視為美儲局有心之作。

將卸任的美儲局第三把交椅人物、紐約儲局行長杜德利，跟鮑威爾有同樣的擔心，杜德利在上周四一個公開演講表示：

‧美國經濟過熱的前景是未來幾年真正的風險，亦擔心今時的金融資產價格高了（elevated）。

‧即使市場大幅下挫，也不會產生10年前我們看到的「破壞性影響」，「而且今時的金融體系比10年前更加具有韌性」。

試捅馬蜂窩 保平穩增長

假如鮑威爾也相信今時「市場是較具韌性」，捱得起衝擊時，他會怎做？可以不妨試捅馬蜂窩，因為對鮑威爾這位金融場上的實戰派而言，投資者應是食得鹹魚抵得渴，如何應付風險是投資策略的一部分。對過分貪婪者，蝕是必然的，亦只有無大貪婪，市場才可以合理平穩地增長，這是任何一個監管者，包括美儲局在內，所樂於見到的：「穩定壓倒一切」。

或會問，特朗普會容許鮑威爾搞寸個Party，take the punch bowl away？鮑威爾可以不必答，給特朗普看看附圖便可：市場是否要High到咁才好？

對我輩投資者又如何？建議如下：

‧看筆者上周六在《經濟日報》的文章，其實是《人民日報》文章，講的是美股見頂，會影響A股。

‧看筆者上周五文：去參加陶冬博士在2月1日的「QE退潮下的全球與中國經濟」講座，怎可不聽？致電2880 2845或2880 2442，這個講座有3個重點：

（1）全球經濟與競爭力重新洗牌

‧縮表與加息下的全球經濟

‧美國稅改對資金流的影響

‧改變全球需求的大因素、大格局

‧美元、歐元、人民幣的走向

（2）中國政策重心轉向的危與機

‧中國信貸周期的轉捩點

‧商業銀行表外擴張所帶來的風險

‧中國房價會大跌嗎？

‧周期性回落與結構性機會

‧如何挖掘90後新消費市場的商機

（3）香港經濟與內地資金

‧香港經濟出路在哪裏

一晚就能幫投資者理清大局，我誠意推薦。